Canadian Economy Improving Slowly For the Season

Canadian Economy Recovering

First Published Date: December 19, 2009

To streamline and minimize blog maintenance, I will be discontinuing maintaining the Canadapersonalfinancewebsite.com website (however, I will still hold the domain). I will gradually move all articles from this site to A Dawn Journal. This article originally published on the above website on Dec 19, 2009

Canada is among the countries that are seeing an upswing in the economy, with spending up and unemployment down since last year. Canadians are expecting the economy to continue improving since the recession that lasted for three quarters.

Home sales are up for the first time since last year, with an increase of up to 73%. Experts are hesitant to say that the rising prices of homes are a permanent change, however. There are some who worry that the exponential price increases are going to last for only a short period, and that the current real estate market is simply a bubble. New cars sales are among the factors that show the economy is improving.

New car sales have risen over three percent since September, and while sales are still slightly below average they are consistently improving on a monthly basis. There is some controversy over the rising levels of debt among citizens, who are now taking advantage of the lowered interest rates that have been put into place through government initiatives to help fight the recession. Citizen debts are now at an all time high, and even though the numbers of bankruptcies are down by over 27%, there are fears that debt may be increasing too much for citizens.

Despite debt concerns, most business owners remain optimistic about the future. In fact, nearly 70% of business owners are expecting to see an increase in business over the next year. With unemployment down by 8.4%, the business owners have good reason to be optimistic. Canada has experienced an influx of over 30,000 jobs in September alone, providing relief just in time for the upcoming holiday season.

Among the factors influencing the economic recovery in Canada is international trade. US automakers have begun to supply Canada with a fresh stock of automobiles, which have become less readily available since the recession began. Some experts feel that the relief is temporary, and see the unemployment rates rising again in the near future. Others have predicted a trend that will lead to further economic improvement in the country, with expectation of 2.6 percent growth in 2010, and 3.9 percent growth in 2011.

The Canadian and US economy are very closely tied, since the US is Canada’s number one trade partner. The improvement in the US automobile industry has helped to improve the Canadian economy, but there are also trends in the US that will predispose the improvement of the Canadian economy over the next two years. The US economy has been improving, and the impact will be positive for Canada, as well.

Among other factors that are improving the Canadian economy are stimulus spending, an increased budget for infrastructure, and lowered interest rates which are at an all time low. Canadians can expect to see stimulus spending remain steady throughout 2010, which will improve the economy further. The lowest unemployment rates won’t be expected until 2011, although they have continuously been falling and are expected to remain under nine percent throughout the next two years.

Do Canadians Pay More?

Canadians Still Paying More . But Not Much More

First Published Date: Aug 2, 2009

Canadian shoppers are used to something of a price difference between shopping domestically and journeying south of the border to pick up some purchases. For various reasons, the dollar goes further in the States even when taking into account the exchange rate, and this has been known to drive some Canadians to visit family in the States, just happening to do a lot of high-value shopping while there. But just recently this price gap has leveled considerably, according to a study carried out recently. It has not closed entirely by any means, but to see it narrowing is positive both for shoppers and for stores.

Of course, as with any financial story it isn’t just a matter of saying “things have improved to some extent” and leaving the statement there. There is considerably more to it, not least the fact that the findings of the study are contentious, having been opposed by the Consumers Association of Canada. The report itself was unveiled by Doug Porter, Deputy Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets. In their study last year, BMO found an average price difference between selected products that stood in favor of the US shopper to the tune of eighteen per cent. This year, with the American economy having suffered severe blows, that gap has receded to 6.8 per cent.

Porter puts a lot of this narrowing down to the strengthening in the loonie, which has comparatively thrived while the US dollar has struggled. As the value of the loonie rises against its Southern counterpart, Canadians have comparably more buying power, and it is normal for prices to fall so that business does not go South.

Nonetheless it still depends very much on what your planned purchases are. For example, if you want to drop into Starbucks and enjoy a latte (tall, nonfat) then for the first time it is cheaper to do so on this side of the border. If you are buying a camera, expect to pay slightly more than your Southern neighbor, but only to the tune of about 2%, which is considerably less than once it was. However if you have your heart set on a chainsaw, you might be well advised to check import costs, as they are still 25% more expensive in Canada. Going to the US and bringing it back across the border might have its own problems, too.

Porter insists that this is a sign that Canada’s stronger anti-recession policies have made things better for the Canadian consumer. The Canadian consumer, represented by the Consumers Association of Canada for the purposes of this article, disagrees. Its president Bruce Cran states that there are huge disparities on a number of other products, not least magazines, which differ in price by a massive 28 per cent – double what the report says. The Association argues that as things stand, Canadian retailers are failing to pass on savings they have made importing US-made products to their customers. Nonetheless, the BMO posits that this will always be the case due to institutional differences, but that the gap is narrowing.

To streamline and minimize blog maintenance, I will be discontinuing maintaining the Canadapersonalfinancewebsite.com website (however, I will still hold the domain). I will gradually move all articles from this site to A Dawn Journal. This article originally published on the above website on Aug 2, 2009.

A Record Number Of Canadians Now Own Their Own Homes

A Nation of Homeowners – Canada

First Published Date : June 23, 2009

In the middle of a worldwide recession, would it surprise you to hear that a record number of Canadians now own their own homes? It would surprise just about anyone, surely? But that is the conclusion from a report by the Bank of Nova Scotia, details of which were reported this week. The caveat to this is that the figures refer to households that owned their own home in 2006 (with the belief that the number increased yet further in 2007) and that the full figures for 2008 will not be known for a couple of years. What is indisputable, however, is that there has been a significant increase in ownership compared with the same figures a decade earlier.

The Scotiabank report states that in 2006  a record high 68.4% of Canadian households were owned by the householder, and that there was reason to believe that the percentage increased in 2007. This was in comparison with figures for 1996 that showed a total of 63.6% of householders owning their own homes. How the figures will be effected by the recession still remains to be seen, as the compilation of the figures from a wide range of sources in a wide range of different jurisdictions takes time. It may well be that there has been some fall-off in the last couple of years as people have sought to cash in the capital locked up in their house and begun renting. However, there is little likelihood that this will have taken the numbers beneath those set a decade ago.

Reasons for this rise in the figures must include the fact that “baby boomers” now make up almost the entirety of the 45-64 age group which is considered the prime house-buying section of society. With the birth numbers having been so elevated in the last 60 years, and the improvements in medical science that have been seen in the intervening period, there are now more people than ever who are ready, willing and financially able to buy a house. Aside from this, however, the numbers have increased for those in other demographics buying houses. this can be put down in large part to the desire for owning assets for the purpose of having something to subsidize a pension. People are saving for their retirement earlier and earlier these days, and using more methods than ever before.

In addition to the headline story of the report, there was also some interesting data to be found in that 9% of Canadian households now own a second property, typically used for the purposes of a holiday, compared to 7% in 1999. How this will have been affected by individuals cashing in on their properties in order to ride out the current recession remains to be seen, and certainly it is unlikely that the numbers will rise as quickly over the next few years. Nonetheless, the changing trend towards home ownership seems to suggest that those who rent their homes will stay in the minority for some time yet.

To streamline and minimize blog maintenance, I will be discontinuing maintaining the Canadapersonalfinancewebsite.com website (however, I will still hold the domain). I will gradually move all articles from this site to A Dawn Journal. This article originally published on the above website on June 23, 2009.

Lessons To Learn From The Financial Crisis

The most obvious lesson from this crisis is the fact that banks have been lending excessively and irresponsibly

First Published Date: July 12, 2009

The credit-led financial crisis in which the world still languishes at present carries some quite profound lessons for us all, much though there will be people queuing up to say that they saw it all coming all along. The undeniable truth is that the world has been hit by this crisis in a way that has left few people untouched – and if it could happen at a time when we are supposed to know more about finance, and about everything, than we all knew a decade or two ago, then what is to stop it happening again? Well, this is what our government are looking at, and along with them the governments of several other countries. Will this put an end to future recessions? Not indefinitely, but we’ll see how long it holds them off.

There were numerous possible reactions when this whole house of cards came crashing down. One was schadenfreude, and it was much in evidence from people who had held on to their jobs and full pay, directed towards those who had made their living from the financial sector. This in all honesty was completely unhelpful – even though the whole crisis was down in some part to the banks, banking policy is dictated not by the guys at the bottom who lost their jobs, but by the people at the top who miraculously survived. Another possible reaction would be to look at this crisis and see what we can learn from it. If we can learn from our mistakes, we can stop them happening in the future, can’t we? Or is it that we will know them when we make them again?

The most obvious lesson from this crisis is the fact that banks have been lending excessively, and irresponsibly, to people whose hopes of actually maintaining the payments were always flimsy. It seems absurd now that the banks could play so free and easy with their money. Was a crisis like this not completely inevitable in the circumstances? The banks have promised that the lesson is learned in any case, and it is noticeable that they have been less keen to lend to anyone recently. Is that really a sign that they have learned the lesson, though, or a sign of over-correction? Who knows?

As people, it would be hoped that we have learned that credit is like a firework – to be treated with caution, but capable of facilitating wonderful things if handled correctly. It is tempting to use borrowing to fund our dreams and our pleasures, but there is always the danger that it could lead to a situation that no-one really enjoys. It shouldn’t need to be a matter of advice – spending money you can’t really afford will lead to bad things! – but if the message needs to be reinforced, just look at the newspapers every day. Do we really want to keep reading about companies going to the wall? Apart from anything else, that is becoming very tedious. Let’s start making good news.

To streamline and minimize blog maintenance, I will be discontinuing maintaining the Canadapersonalfinancewebsite.com website (however, I will still hold the domain). I will gradually move all articles from this site to A Dawn Journal. This article originally published on the above website on July 12, 2009.

Fragile Global Economy and China

Risks Still Exist

First Published Date: August 18, 2015

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently stated that although the global economy is recovering, it is still fragile and there are risks on the horizon.

The US is a strong performer and although China has had some recent stock market turmoil, its economy is still resilient.

The Eurozone economy is expected to grow 1.5 percent in 2015 and 1.7 percent in 2017. These figures are a lot better than 0.8 percent growth in 2014.

A downward trend in commodity prices will hurt emerging economies. And then there is the possibility of a US rate increase – which will likely to have impact on economies around the globe.

After a 0.1 percent slump in 2014, Japan will likely grow 0.8 percent in 2015.

China’s economy is strong enough to withhold volatility and is expected to grow 6.8 percent in 2015. Although this rate is the slowest since 1990, it’s still not bad compared to other global economies. Even with the recent stock market selloff in China, stocks are 80 percent higher than one year ago.