Donald Trump Global Economy Effects In Brief

Donald Trump and Global Economy

First Published Date: November 17, 2016

The global economy was already on a rough ride due to low consumer confidence and business, weak investments and depressed commodity markets, rising debt and low interest rates, and much more. And now, to add more to the rough ride, the surprise victory of Donald Trump is another integer in the equation. Here are some of the concerns that can derail the global economy further in the Trump era.

Author/Copyright: Ahmed Dawn www.adawnjournal.com

China

Imposing a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imported goods. This will make everything more expensive for consumers (goods made in USA also use Chinese materials) and China might retaliate with similar tariff on US imports. In the end, everyone in the globe will be a loser.

Mexico

Mexico has the most to lose if Trump does what he said he would do. Dismantling NAFTA, slapping a 35 percent tariff, rounding up illegal immigrants, and possibly more will have economic impacts on Mexico and in the US as well.

Canada

Canada actually can both gain and lose from Trump’s presidency. Cancelling or renegotiating the TTIP and NAFTA agreements are both negatives. However, approving the Keystone XL Pipeline would allow shipment of bitumen from Alberta to the U.S. and would be definitely a plus.

Trump has argued that by neglecting national debt by cutting taxes for the wealthy, cutting regulations, and reducing imports he can make the GDP grow 4 percent (from 2 percent currently). However, analysts disagree. Many believe that adopting Trump’s proposals on trades, taxes, immigration and government spending would destroy millions of jobs and the U.S. economy will be isolated and diminished.

Also, US dollars are still the main reserve currency in the world and only the US Federal Reserve is responsible for the supply. If Trump tries to influence the Fed’s policies and interest rates, it will create havoc both in the U.S. and global economy.

Downsides and Upsides of Free Trade, Global Economy, and China Spillover

OECD Cuts Global Economy Outlook

First Published Date: October 15, 2016

The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, recently mentioned in a report that spillovers from China could hamper the global economy. China should consider taking various steps, including a liberal approach on the Yuan and revamping weak firms.

A freer floating exchange rate and transparent policy change mechanism are a must for China to improve its economy and stop global spillovers. Also, the IMF cautions against China’s protectionist policies. Protectionist measures will likely depress global trade and economy in the short term and also in the long run.

Author/Copyright: Ahmed Dawn www.adawnjournal.com

Harvard Economics professor Kenneth Rogoff recently told the BBC that China is the biggest threat to the global economy and that the economy is slowing down more than official figures. After triple-digit growth for years, the IMF predicts the expected economic growth rate to be only 6.6 percent this year.

OECD Downgrades Canada Economy

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, also downgrades the global and Canadian economy. The growth rate was lowered to 1.2 percent from 1.7 percent for Canada. The prediction for 2017 Canadian economy is down to 3.2 percent from a previous 3.3 percent, which is not that bad.

The world economy is expected to grow 2.9 percent in 2016. The earlier forecast for 2016 was 3.1 percent. The OECD believes a slowdown in international trade generating from Asia is the main reason for the global economic slowdown.

Downsides and Upsides of Free Trade

Also, the rise of anti-free trade movements in Western countries, such as recently seen in the Brexit vote in Britain and in the Trump movement in the U.S., do not paint a pretty picture for global growth. The downsides of freer global trade, such as losing jobs to China, are easy to see and the upsides, such as lower prices, more choices, etc., are harder to see.

China Is Not the Sole Economy Engine and India Bright Spot

China Should Not Be The Sole Global Economy Engine

First Published Date: August 3, 2016

In a recent roundtable talk with six global finance leaders, Chinese Premier mentioned that China should not be the only growth engine to carry the global economy. China is still a developing country and should not be responsible for the major world responsibilities.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently trimmed global economic growth to 3.1 percent for 2016 and 3.4 percent for 2017 and China’s GDP growth for 2016 to 6.6 percent. All these numbers were reduced by 0.1 percent to reflect recent global conditions.

India Is A Bright Spot

On the other hand, IMF reports that India is a bright spot, as it has the fastest growth rate at 7.5 percent in the global economy. This growth pace should be steady for at least the next three years.

A stable and peaceful political environment is an advantage India enjoys when compared to other countries such as Brazil, China, Russia, and Turkey. Also, foreign investments in India are higher than any other country’s, including China.

Global Economy Consuming Less Energy

The U.S. Department of Energy reports that the consumption of energy such as coal, oil, gas, and even renewable energy is gradually decreasing. This is a good example of how the world is getting better at handling climate change.

Also, carbon emission is decreasing as global economies switch towards renewable energy at a faster pace.

Urgent Call for Global Economies

IMF recently issued an urgent call to implement more growth-boosting policies to put global economies on the right track. IMF suggested the world’s 20 largest economies should maintain relaxed money policies and stay ready to implement contingency plans should things turn worse.

However, the U.S. Treasury believes such a crisis response is not necessary because conditions seem to be improving.

Global Economy Updates

World Economy

First Published Date: May 8, 2016

The recent global economic outlooks provided by IMF forecast a grim picture for the upcoming months. The global economy will continue to recover, but at a slower and fragile pace.

Due to uncertain growth and confidence, advanced economies have deteriorated economic growth in the near future. Also, due to declines in commodity and prices, emerging economies will continue to suffer along with commodity-exporting countries.

As China is moving towards an economic growth based on consumption and services, there will be spills along the way that could affect other countries, especially emerging markets and developing economies. Emerging markets also suffer from slowing capital inflows and accelerating outflows.

Countries should emphasize accommodation monetary policies supplemented by complementary fiscal policies to boost economic growth and output.

However, another report published by Oxford Economies indicated that the global economy is no longer likely to fall into a full recession due to a surge in the global stock market, stable oil prices, and surging commodity prices. Economy health is at a better position now than it was in early January when oil prices were heading towards $20 a barrel and the stock market was in a free-fall.

The US Federal Reserve also keeps maintaining its current interest rate until at least June. Faith in the strengthening US economy makes the Fed believe that evolving economic conditions will make it possible to increase interest rates gradually in the future.

Lessons To Learn From The Financial Crisis

The most obvious lesson from this crisis is the fact that banks have been lending excessively and irresponsibly

First Published Date: July 12, 2009

The credit-led financial crisis in which the world still languishes at present carries some quite profound lessons for us all, much though there will be people queuing up to say that they saw it all coming all along. The undeniable truth is that the world has been hit by this crisis in a way that has left few people untouched – and if it could happen at a time when we are supposed to know more about finance, and about everything, than we all knew a decade or two ago, then what is to stop it happening again? Well, this is what our government are looking at, and along with them the governments of several other countries. Will this put an end to future recessions? Not indefinitely, but we’ll see how long it holds them off.

There were numerous possible reactions when this whole house of cards came crashing down. One was schadenfreude, and it was much in evidence from people who had held on to their jobs and full pay, directed towards those who had made their living from the financial sector. This in all honesty was completely unhelpful – even though the whole crisis was down in some part to the banks, banking policy is dictated not by the guys at the bottom who lost their jobs, but by the people at the top who miraculously survived. Another possible reaction would be to look at this crisis and see what we can learn from it. If we can learn from our mistakes, we can stop them happening in the future, can’t we? Or is it that we will know them when we make them again?

The most obvious lesson from this crisis is the fact that banks have been lending excessively, and irresponsibly, to people whose hopes of actually maintaining the payments were always flimsy. It seems absurd now that the banks could play so free and easy with their money. Was a crisis like this not completely inevitable in the circumstances? The banks have promised that the lesson is learned in any case, and it is noticeable that they have been less keen to lend to anyone recently. Is that really a sign that they have learned the lesson, though, or a sign of over-correction? Who knows?

As people, it would be hoped that we have learned that credit is like a firework – to be treated with caution, but capable of facilitating wonderful things if handled correctly. It is tempting to use borrowing to fund our dreams and our pleasures, but there is always the danger that it could lead to a situation that no-one really enjoys. It shouldn’t need to be a matter of advice – spending money you can’t really afford will lead to bad things! – but if the message needs to be reinforced, just look at the newspapers every day. Do we really want to keep reading about companies going to the wall? Apart from anything else, that is becoming very tedious. Let’s start making good news.

To streamline and minimize blog maintenance, I will be discontinuing maintaining the Canadapersonalfinancewebsite.com website (however, I will still hold the domain). I will gradually move all articles from this site to A Dawn Journal. This article originally published on the above website on July 12, 2009.