India’s Falling Rupee and Its Economic Future

India’’s All-Time Low Rupee Causes Downward Chain Reactions

Published Date: December 1, 2011 ADawnJournak.com

The Indian falling rupee has reached an all-time low when it reached 52 against the US dollar on November 21. The rupee has lost 16 percent of its value against the US dollar this year – making it the most depreciated currency in Asia and the 3rd most depreciated in the world.

The European debt crisis, slowing domestic economy, high interest rates, and fear that India will be hit by a shortage of US dollars are some of the factors that are putting pressure on Indian currency and causing the fall. According to data released by India’s Securities and Exchange board, foreign funds bought only $392 million of Indian stocks this year in comparison to $30 billion in 2010. Figures like this show that foreign investors are nervous about India’s weak economy and the sentiment will continue to deteriorate with the declining Indian rupee.

India’s targeted fiscal deficit is at 4.6 percent of its GDP. It is unlikely that this target will be achieved. It was initially thought that India would be unaffected by the Euro crisis and global economic slowdown. However, recent steady streams of financial news and data show that this is not the case. And the recent downward currency fall adds more worries to an economy that is already on a slippery slope.

22 percent of India’s GDP is made up of imports and India imports 21 percent of the world’s pulses to meet domestic demands. Also, India imports 70 percent of its gas and oil demands. A weaker rupee will make imports more expensive, and thus will increase inflation and raise the current account deficit.

High inflation and high interest rates cause corporate profits to decline and make foreign investors withdraw investments – adding more pressure on a currency that is already declining. To fight its account deficit, India needs direct foreign investments. With a declining currency, declining foreign investments, Euro debt crisis, global economic slowdown, and 320 billion foreign exchange reserves, India has a lot of work to do to in the coming months.