Why China Will Dominate the 21st Century

China and The 21st Century

Published Date : April 17, 2010 ADawnJournal.com

The 19th century was the British Century, when the British Empire dominated the planet. The 20th century was the American Century, when the United States and its culture dominated the planet. At the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, what country will dominate? What country will feel its reach extended and what country will have its culture reach every region of the planet?

Well, while many want to think that it will be the United States; most experts feel that while the United States will remain very important, the true dominator of the 21st century will be China.

In a poll done by The Washington Post and ABC News in February of 2010, 53 percent of respondents felt that the United States’ role in the 21st century will be smaller than it was in the 20th century. In addition, 43 percent feel that the country to dominate the 21st century will be China.

One reason for this is the incredibly rapid growth of the nation. In 1980, 53 percent of the Chinese population lived in poverty. In 2010, just 30 years later, only eight percent of the population is in poverty thanks to the rapidly increasing size of the Chinese middle class. The economy of China has also been growing, quite quickly, at a world-dominating 8.7 percent per year. This is well above what the United States economy is growing at. As well, the United States owes China more money than China owes the United States. The massive amount of consumerism in the United States has greatly helped China, where a vast amount of American products are actually made.

Factories are being built at a blistering pace in China, and the country is also investing heavily in green energy. All of this is making it appear that China is going to be the country to watch during the 21st century.

Of course, China is not exempt from problems. The country still has a lot of work to do in order to reach the same level as the United States in other regards. These include:

1.   China needs to create more political freedoms for its citizens.

2.   China needs to ensure that it has higher standards for the types of products it uses and the materials it uses in the products, like lead.

3.   China needs to cut back on its coal power use to keep the country from becoming heavily polluted.

4.   China needs to take a more diplomatic approach with other countries, especially concerning Taiwan and Tibet.

In the meantime, China is working hard to be a force to be reckoned with. While it may seem like China is just emerging as a giant in the 21st century, it is also important to remember that the country has actually been a force for 5,000 years. In fact, China has created many of the inventions the Western World uses, but they did so centuries before Europe. China is always a force to be reckoned with.

Will Changing the One-Child Policy Work?

China Terminates One-Child Policy

First Published: November 12, 2015 ADawnJournal.com

China has decided to end its decades-long one-child policy. I wrote a piece on China’s One-Child Policy in the past. The one-child policy first started nationwide in 1979 to slow population growth. It is estimated that the one-child policy prevented roughly 400 million births in China.

Although the Chinese government didn’t explain this move, it’s widely believed that a drop in workforce and a growing elderly population are the main reasons behind it. Currently, the population in China is 1.35 billion, with 30% over the age of 50. The workforce is made of 64% women and women in the workforce did well in the corporate world because they were required to stay home less due to the previous one-child policy.

Over the long run, there may be a drop in the women’s workforce, as many will choose to stay home to have more than one kid. However, as having one child has become a social norm, there is a possibility that many families will not choose to have more than one kid. And also there is the question of how many families are ready to give up financial stability over having more kids.

There are also concerns that businesses will make it harder for women to stay off work or reluctant to hire them in the first place, knowing women could take off for giving birth repeatedly.

Although there are several factors that will work together to make this new policy work (or not), the most important part is how women in China respond to this change. And we will have to wait to see the outcome, possibly in a few years.

Will Chinese Economy Surpasses USA?

India, China, and Global Economy

First Published: ADawnJournal.com February 3, 2010
 

While the global recession has just come to an end, and some nations are starting to dig their way out of financial distress, the economies of India and China continued to grow while most others were bogged down.

Some economists even point out that India and China are leading the way and doing more than their share when it comes to boosting the global recovery. Many of them also predict that China will eventually take over from the United States as the world’s economic superpower sometime during the next 10 years.

That doesn’t really come as much of a surprise to the man on the street though, but what may be a shocker is that India may also soon overtake the mighty U.S.  However, while the two up and comers are become big players in the global economic game, they are achieving it in with a different set of skills and under dissimilar governments.

At present, most economists will agree that when it comes to the top tier of global economic standing, the U.S. leads Japan and China. According to the CIA World Fact book, the GDP (gross domestic product) in 2008 showed the U.S. at US $14 trillion, Japan at $5 trillion and  China $4.4 at trillion. However, India has cracked the top 2$1.20 and sat at number 12 on the 2008 list at trillion.

While China may be growing pretty rapidly, it’s still got a long journey ahead before it catches up to America. And from these figures, that would appear it might take decades. However, the key point to remember is that while the economies of China and India are still growing, the rest of the nations’ GDP around the world has certainly stalled or at least slowed down for the time being due to the recession.

When a country’s economy is considered to be strong, its citizens often spend their money on big-ticket items such as homes and automobiles. However, when a recession hits and the economy is weakened, people hang on to their money and these types of purchases are postponed, especially when jobs are being lost. This can clearly be seen over the past couple of years in the U.S.

But the citizens of China are spending their hard-earned money at a high rate and it’s predicted that by next year China will surpass America when it comes to car sales. The recent recall of millions of Toyota automobiles and the temporary halt of production in North America will also hurt American sales.

It is estimated that China’s growth rate averages between seven and eight per cent, while the U.S. predicted growth is just over one percent. If these numbers are accurate, sooner or later China will pass the leader in our lifetime.

It also looks like India will soon become a major player as its growth rate looks pretty high for the next few years. While the nations’ GDP is well below the U.S. and China at the moment, it has one of the largest populations in the world.  And considering the comparatively low wages and areas of poverty, India’s GDP is quite impressive.

However, India’s economy is mainly based on services instead of goods and its economy has the potential for great growth because of its population and excellent knowledge base.  In fact, many economists predict that India will be among the top economies of the world by the year 2020.

China’s Plunging Foreign Reserves

Yuan Continues to Outflow

Chinese currency remains worrisome to the global economy as Yuan continues to outflow causing declining foreign exchange reserve. As the Yuan is losing value, Chinese consumers are rushing to exchange them for U.S. dollars to preserve their value.

As there is a limit of exchanging Chinese currency annually to $50,000, consumers are trying to get around this rule by buying other tangible assets such as real estate, fine art, expensive wine, and so on. Another popular method to get around this rule is to use the quota of other people who have room and sometimes paying to use their quota.

The Chinese government is intervening in the market to stop rapid depreciation of Yuan by selling dollars and buying Chinese currency. However, this intervention is causing the plunging of the foreign exchange reserve. Chinese authorities are assuring everyone that there is nothing to worry about and these fluctuations are normal economic conditions.

January data shows that the foreign reserve declined by $12.3 billion to $2.9 trillion. Also, debt is rising rapidly and growth in GDP is slowing down. And there are more things to worry about as President Trump made it a priority to balance the trade deficit with China. China has been running trade surplus with the rest of the world persistently for the last decade. The USA had a trade deficit of $347 billion in 2016.

A declining Yuan, slowing GDP, and rising debt will likely contribute to bigger surplus as exports to China will suffer the most from all these.