China and India In The Next 20 Years

China or India – Or China AND India?

There is an economic miracle of sorts taking place in today’s global economy, and it is coming as no shock to the people who have been watching the global picture develop these last ten years. However unsurprising it is in general, there will be people who, although they knew it was coming, may not have expected to see it happen in their lifetime. The economic miracle is taking place in Asia. That may not be terribly specific, given the size of the continent itself (the world’s largest continent), so to specify: Where the miracle is really happening is in two particular countries: China and India.

There was always the potential for this to happen, given the raw data that is available to anyone. China and India are two of the world’s largest countries by size, and easily the two largest by population with almost 40% of the world’s people living between them. This mix of landmass and population combined with the resultant ability to call on raw materials gives both China and India the opportunity to maximize any opportunity and become global powerhouses. But this dimensional magnitude has in both cases been both a blessing and a curse. The spread of both countries, allied to China’s historic insularity and India’s numerous dividing factors, has held both back from becoming quite as successful as they might have hoped.

As the 21st century really gets going, with its first decade almost inked into the history books, both China and India look ready to make their big impact on the world’s economy. Both countries are expected to have a big century, and by the middle of this one will, on any reading of the situation, have economies which outstrip the current largest in the world, that of America. China will get there first – by 2030 on a conservative estimate, followed by India within the next 20 years. Will America and others be able to catch up in the mean time and overturn the predictions? It’s hard to say, but the economy does sometimes throw up unexpected situations.

Another question which might arise is that of whether competition between India and China will be a stalling factor in either country’s growth. This is not expected to be the case, as the economic strengths of both countries complement each other quite well, and may in fact enable mutual growth in countries which are showing greater expansion in their economies than any other major nation.

China is endlessly improving on a mass-manufacturing front, and expanding its range of industrial plants in order to cement its role as a world leader in that respect. India is marking its territory as a master of precision manufacturing and software innovation. The two working together will be able to supply the world with much of what it wants without stepping on each other’s toes. It is impressive to see how quickly both have developed, and interesting to wait and see what is next from these two future superpowers.

China – THE Superpower of the Future?

It Is Expected That By 2050 China
Will Have The Highest GDP On The Planet

First Published Date : July 28, 2009 ADawnJournal.com

The four separate and disparate countries which make up the grouping known as BRIC have taken up a lot of newsprint in recent times, often with an alarmist tone. The old order certainly seems to be being shaken up a little, if not completely overturned, and it is the identity of the countries doing it which is surprising most people. Although the countries themselves are not tied by anything concrete beyond some early multilateral trade talks Brazil, Russia, India and China do all have something in common. They are all in the top ten nations of the world in terms of

population. Between them these four countries have a combined population of more than two and a half billion. In terms of percentage they are home to more than forty percent of the people in the world.

Although sizeable in terms of geographical mass and population, however, these countries with the possible exception of Russia had not, until recently, been seriously grouped in the “superpower” category by the generality of analysts. Decentralised populations, poor communications linkups and government policy were among the reasons for these countries being associated more than anything with political stricture and

grinding poverty. And while it would be hopelessly naïve to say that poverty was a thing of the past in any of the above nations, there is no denying that they have each somewhat overturned their reputations and are on target to be the most important economies in the world within a generation.

China, for its part, spent much of the 20th century with a reputation for insularity, government repression of subjects and human rights abuses.

While the country still has work to do to shake off the reputation, it is certainly opening up in comparison with the past. This is expected to continue, and may need to if China is to meet the expectation that by 2050 it will have the highest GDP on the planet, increasing from its most recent annual GDP of US$4.4million to a number higher than seventy million, twice the forecasted GDP for the expected nearest competitor, the US. What this confers on China, its government and its industries is a great deal of bargaining power. International summits without China are increasingly going to be seen as largely irrelevant, because even if a powerful group of countries wish to move the world in one direction its richest, and most populous, nation exercises powerful veto muscles.

There is no doubt that the way China moves in the coming years will have a major influence on the way the world will move. There is some question over how this will change China as a country. Money at the moment is not as evenly distributed and like India, China has a significant proportion of its population living beneath the poverty line. If its greater financial muscle results in more of the Chinese population sharing in a greater level of its wealth, then it is inevitable that China’s cultural reach will increase. Having hosted the Olympic Games in 2008, it is thought

that China will next bid to host the soccer World Cup – and with that comes greater scrutiny. Financial change is coming to China, now how will that change be reflected in the rest of it?

Why China Will Dominate the 21st Century

China and The 21st Century

Published Date : April 17, 2010 ADawnJournal.com

The 19th century was the British Century, when the British Empire dominated the planet. The 20th century was the American Century, when the United States and its culture dominated the planet. At the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, what country will dominate? What country will feel its reach extended and what country will have its culture reach every region of the planet?

Well, while many want to think that it will be the United States; most experts feel that while the United States will remain very important, the true dominator of the 21st century will be China.

In a poll done by The Washington Post and ABC News in February of 2010, 53 percent of respondents felt that the United States’ role in the 21st century will be smaller than it was in the 20th century. In addition, 43 percent feel that the country to dominate the 21st century will be China.

One reason for this is the incredibly rapid growth of the nation. In 1980, 53 percent of the Chinese population lived in poverty. In 2010, just 30 years later, only eight percent of the population is in poverty thanks to the rapidly increasing size of the Chinese middle class. The economy of China has also been growing, quite quickly, at a world-dominating 8.7 percent per year. This is well above what the United States economy is growing at. As well, the United States owes China more money than China owes the United States. The massive amount of consumerism in the United States has greatly helped China, where a vast amount of American products are actually made.

Factories are being built at a blistering pace in China, and the country is also investing heavily in green energy. All of this is making it appear that China is going to be the country to watch during the 21st century.

Of course, China is not exempt from problems. The country still has a lot of work to do in order to reach the same level as the United States in other regards. These include:

1.   China needs to create more political freedoms for its citizens.

2.   China needs to ensure that it has higher standards for the types of products it uses and the materials it uses in the products, like lead.

3.   China needs to cut back on its coal power use to keep the country from becoming heavily polluted.

4.   China needs to take a more diplomatic approach with other countries, especially concerning Taiwan and Tibet.

In the meantime, China is working hard to be a force to be reckoned with. While it may seem like China is just emerging as a giant in the 21st century, it is also important to remember that the country has actually been a force for 5,000 years. In fact, China has created many of the inventions the Western World uses, but they did so centuries before Europe. China is always a force to be reckoned with.

Will Changing the One-Child Policy Work?

China Terminates One-Child Policy

First Published: November 12, 2015 ADawnJournal.com

China has decided to end its decades-long one-child policy. I wrote a piece on China’s One-Child Policy in the past. The one-child policy first started nationwide in 1979 to slow population growth. It is estimated that the one-child policy prevented roughly 400 million births in China.

Although the Chinese government didn’t explain this move, it’s widely believed that a drop in workforce and a growing elderly population are the main reasons behind it. Currently, the population in China is 1.35 billion, with 30% over the age of 50. The workforce is made of 64% women and women in the workforce did well in the corporate world because they were required to stay home less due to the previous one-child policy.

Over the long run, there may be a drop in the women’s workforce, as many will choose to stay home to have more than one kid. However, as having one child has become a social norm, there is a possibility that many families will not choose to have more than one kid. And also there is the question of how many families are ready to give up financial stability over having more kids.

There are also concerns that businesses will make it harder for women to stay off work or reluctant to hire them in the first place, knowing women could take off for giving birth repeatedly.

Although there are several factors that will work together to make this new policy work (or not), the most important part is how women in China respond to this change. And we will have to wait to see the outcome, possibly in a few years.

Will Chinese Economy Surpasses USA?

India, China, and Global Economy

First Published: ADawnJournal.com February 3, 2010
 

While the global recession has just come to an end, and some nations are starting to dig their way out of financial distress, the economies of India and China continued to grow while most others were bogged down.

Some economists even point out that India and China are leading the way and doing more than their share when it comes to boosting the global recovery. Many of them also predict that China will eventually take over from the United States as the world’s economic superpower sometime during the next 10 years.

That doesn’t really come as much of a surprise to the man on the street though, but what may be a shocker is that India may also soon overtake the mighty U.S.  However, while the two up and comers are become big players in the global economic game, they are achieving it in with a different set of skills and under dissimilar governments.

At present, most economists will agree that when it comes to the top tier of global economic standing, the U.S. leads Japan and China. According to the CIA World Fact book, the GDP (gross domestic product) in 2008 showed the U.S. at US $14 trillion, Japan at $5 trillion and  China $4.4 at trillion. However, India has cracked the top 2$1.20 and sat at number 12 on the 2008 list at trillion.

While China may be growing pretty rapidly, it’s still got a long journey ahead before it catches up to America. And from these figures, that would appear it might take decades. However, the key point to remember is that while the economies of China and India are still growing, the rest of the nations’ GDP around the world has certainly stalled or at least slowed down for the time being due to the recession.

When a country’s economy is considered to be strong, its citizens often spend their money on big-ticket items such as homes and automobiles. However, when a recession hits and the economy is weakened, people hang on to their money and these types of purchases are postponed, especially when jobs are being lost. This can clearly be seen over the past couple of years in the U.S.

But the citizens of China are spending their hard-earned money at a high rate and it’s predicted that by next year China will surpass America when it comes to car sales. The recent recall of millions of Toyota automobiles and the temporary halt of production in North America will also hurt American sales.

It is estimated that China’s growth rate averages between seven and eight per cent, while the U.S. predicted growth is just over one percent. If these numbers are accurate, sooner or later China will pass the leader in our lifetime.

It also looks like India will soon become a major player as its growth rate looks pretty high for the next few years. While the nations’ GDP is well below the U.S. and China at the moment, it has one of the largest populations in the world.  And considering the comparatively low wages and areas of poverty, India’s GDP is quite impressive.

However, India’s economy is mainly based on services instead of goods and its economy has the potential for great growth because of its population and excellent knowledge base.  In fact, many economists predict that India will be among the top economies of the world by the year 2020.