What will things be like after the recession?

After The recession, World’s Economy And China

First published: Published Date : May 24, 2009 ADawnJournal.com

For some time in the last couple of years, the question that one dared not ask was “What would we do in a recession?”. Then the bad news about the financial state of the world started filtering out and the question was amended slightly to “If this continues, will we see a recession?”. This time the question was answered in short order, as things got worse with little delay, and the new question was “How soon will we be out of this recession?”. As yet, opinions differ on how and when the world will lift itself out of the financial crisis that is uniting many of the most powerful economies in the world in a sense of real and tangible panic. Another question is being asked, too – “What will things be like after the recession?”

The world’s economy has taken something of a battering over the last couple of years. There are countries who, against the statistical likelihood, have prospered, but they are generally economies that were termed as “developing” and had less of an established infrastructure, thus were less at risk from the tremors that ripped through a number of markets and industries. The major economies of the world are largely interlinked through mutual investment agreements and free trade, and thus when one of them hit a brick wall, the rest were always likely to feel some of the impact. Those countries which were just getting up to speed were always likely to remain outside the clutches of the recession.

When the recession is over, then, one thing that we are likely to see is some new major players on the global economic stage. It would be short sighted and insulting to assume that the countries which have big reputations now will simply retake their places at the top table when things pick up. Countries with developing economies that are further along than others may be the ones to really benefit. Look for Brazil, India and China – three countries with massive populations, a great deal of manpower and growing economies – to come to the table with a significantly improved bargaining position. There are ill-effects from this recession for all three, but all have been able to deal with it better than the “major” economies, as they have been insulated by a lack of complicity in the failures of the global economy.

China has for some time now been seen as the world’s next great superpower. Its time may come sooner than expected due to the compression of the field that has resulted from the recession. China has embraced capitalism unofficially, and its major technological development in recent years allied to a huge workforce makes for an impressive armory. India, another nation with a billion-plus population, is less far along but has not suffered the slowdown that the long-time leaders have and so can continue its development. Brazil, for its part, is a large landmass with a sizeable population and its government has been praised for its economic handling. All of the above three nations have their own specialized industries that are of major interest to the world, and all will hold strong bargaining positions going forward.