Forecasting And Multiple Scenario Planning And How To Use Them

Forecasting and Multiple Scenario Plans

No one can predict the future, but that does not stop people from wanting to find ways where they can get an idea of what is to come. Forecast planning and scenario planning work on this principle by giving you the ability to have an idea of what is just around the corner. Forecast planning and scenario planning are used in a wide range of business sectors, as well as in our personal life. If you have thought about asking your boss for a raise and have gone through how this request will go, then you have done forecast planning. When a company releases its budget for the coming year, they are forecasting how their sales will be in relation to the costs that they will need to pay.

It is all about determining, to the greatest degree of accuracy, just what is going to happen down the road.

Forecasting is the process by which you make statements about events when you do not know what the outcome is going to be. It is often called making a best-estimation of what is going to happen. When someone asks you if it is going to rain, you make your best-estimation by saying that it might, but you cannot guarantee that it will. There are plenty of sectors and applications that use forecast planning, including:

1. Supply chain management
2. Meteorology
3. Transport planning
4. Economics
5. Technology
6. Earthquake forecasting
7. Land use forecasting
8. Product forecasting
9. Sport team performance
10. Political forecasting
11. Sales forecasting

Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that many organizations and individuals use to create long-term plans that are typically very flexible. Military intelligence will often do strategic planning through scenarios like simulation games that test whether or not a certain strategy is going to work. Business, which is often a war zone of its own, has latched onto the concept of strategic planning. Royal Dutch/Shell is one company that has done so, using scenario planning to determine changing mindsets from around the world.

The main thing to remember with scenario planning and forecasting is that they are typically wrong. This is not because the forecasters do not know what they are doing, but simply that it is not possible to predict the future with any certainty. There are far too many variables to make any sort of prediction concrete. This is why weather forecasters no longer say “Rain tomorrow”. They say “40 percent chance of precipitation.” They do this because if there is only a light drizzle, they are covered by the precipitation part and if it does not rain, they can show there was only 60 percent chance of it not raining.

Scenarios are very important for business, military and people in their day-to-day lives. The reason for this is that people can determine what course of action is going to be best. Here are some examples:

1. A military campaign against an enemy needs to be run through scenarios. Various tactics will be determined and put against how the enemy is predicted to respond. The tactic that gets the best results over several scenario runs will probably be the campaign that is used.
2. Investors want to know how the market is going to move. So, they run scenarios using specialized tools to determine, based on past data, how the market may move down the road. This gives them a better understanding of how to invest, thereby hopefully lowering the overall risk that they face. With scenario planning and forecasting, investors can see both the upsides and downsides. For example, they may determine there is a good chance that the stock they have is going to fall in price. So, they sell the stock and when it does fall, they have saved themselves from losing money.
3. Weather forecasters will use data from the past to formulate an idea of how the weather is going to turn based on data they have at that moment. What we mean by this is that if a low pressure system is approaching, and it is April, the weather forecasters will look at how low pressures affected April weather in the past and use that as a way to determine what the weather is going to be like.
4. Individuals will use scenario planning to determine how they should respond to things in their life. For example, a person will be looking at buying a car but they will have to run through scenarios of how they are going to pay for it. So, they run a scenario that figures out the costs of having a high-priced sports car, with its lower gas mileage and higher insurance, versus a hybrid that will cost less and save the person money. Through the scenarios, comparing costs with income, the individual can determine if they will be able to afford the sports car. Without this scenario planning, the person may buy the sports car and end up not being able to pay for it.

It is important to remember the difference between scenario planning and forecasting. Scenario planning looks at several different futures that may come about, while forecasting only looks at one. Therefore, scenario planning offers you more of an opportunity to make the right decision since forecasting can only see one future and there is a good chance that future will not happen.

Scenario planning gives us the ability to foresee, plan for and deal with surprises and problems. If we do scenario planning that shows us moving to a new town will cost us more than benefit us, we can eliminate the regret of moving to the town by not moving.

With scenario planning, unlike forecasting, you can have a backup plan. You can have several scenarios so that if one does not pan out, you can move to the next most likely scenario and so on. Remember the adages of ‘Plan for the worst, hope for the best’ and ‘Chance favours the prepared mind.’
First Published: EntrepreneurJourney.com Apr 24, 2010

Is Renting Expensive in Toronto?

Toronto Rents Are Reasonable?

There are various reports and research ranking the best cities in the world. And one thing you’ll commonly see is that Toronto always ranks high, usually staying in the top ten, regardless of which ranking you look at. Mercer Quality of Living Survey, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Cities of Opportunity report, and the Economist Intelligence Unit are just a few to name.

However, the striking difference between Toronto and other top class cities are what you pay to rent there. Another recent report published by RentCafe mentions that Toronto is 13th out of the 30 top financial centres in the world, but it only has the 26th highest rent among the top 30 cities.

If you live within an hour commuting distance from downtown Toronto, in Etobicoke for example, renting a one bedroom apartment can cost $900 and a 2 bedroom for $1,200. Rent in Midtown, which is about a half an hour commute from downtown, you will be paying $1,400 for a one bedroom and $2,000 for a two bedroom. In downtown, a one bedroom apartment can go for $2,000 and a two bedroom can go for $3,000.

Keep in mind that these examples are not to be taken as a sure thing. There are price fluctuations in the same area or even in the same building, as various factors such as location, floor, view, square footage, and many others elements play in determining rent price.

I have made a video on this and you can watch it by clicking here (Is It Expensive to Rent in Toronto?) or on the top left picture. After watching, it is up to you to determine whether the world’s best place to live (Toronto) is expensive to rent or not.

No One Cares About Your Money

Care About Your Money

No one cares about your money but you. Only you know how hard it is to earn a dollar, and even harder to save a dollar - that’s why self-interest is the best interest. The funny thing about money is that everyone can give advice about your money, but they are not nearly so casual with their own money. You are the one who earned it, and only you know the value of each dollar. Why give your money someone else to invest? Do you think that someone else will treat your money the same way as you do - of course not. That someone else will not act his/her best to protect your interests. He/she will act best to protect his/her own interests. You will not do frequent trading to earn commissions. However, that someone else might. That’s why I believe you should be your own money manager. I don’t believe you need to hire a financial advisor to start investing. But if you never invested before, how you can start on your own?

My first book Invest Now assumes you never invested before and teaches you how to start investing for the first time. It is written in simple and plain English, and you will never need a financial dictionary. You don’t have to be a financial guru to develop a consistent saving plan and accumulate wealth. Invest Now offers all the tools and motivation you need to start building a safe and secure financial future now for you and your family.

Award-winning book Invest Now is jam-packed with timely information and timeless advice for the beginning Canadian investor. To purchase a copy, visit Chapters Indigo or buy online - Invest Now: A Canadian's Guide to Investing

First Published: ADawnJournal.com Apr 15, 2008

How To Come Up With Great Domain Names

Domain Name Ideas and Tips

One thing I am constantly doing and never fall short of is my relentless pursuit for great domain ideas or domain names. Today, I will share a few things on how to come up with great domain names out of thin air.

Creativity is your number one asset – if you want to be a proud owner of some world-class, high-end domain names. Whenever I don’t need to be attentive and can free up my mind, I put my mind to work questing for domain names. Most people will let their mind wander when on the subway, standing in line, or just wandering around and wasting time; however, I see these moments as an opportunity and concentrate on finding great domain names. Here are a few tips I can share with you. These tips have worked for me and if you use them, they will work for you too.

- Always keep your eye and mind open. Pay attention to details when you are watching TV, reading signboards or store names while walking, reading a newspaper, and so on. Why? Because you may bump into some words or variations of words that can be used as domain names. For example, I came up with Dotcomdiary.com, Earthroadmap.com, and Globalboundaries.com just doing what I just mentioned.

- Keep a notebook and pen handy on your table, next to your bed, in your bag, etc. This happens to me a lot – I wake up in the middle of the night with a domain name burning in my head. Because of keeping a pen and notebook handy everywhere, I am able to write down the domain idea that woke me up in the middle of night and research it later when I get a chance. I came up with domains like beyondyourimaginations.com, greenlivingjourney.com and many others because I was able to write down right away.

- If you are waiting in line or riding the subway and can’t find anything to do, play around with some words and variations domain ideas. For example, one day the word “Roadmap” somehow struck my mind and I got infatuated with this word. Since then, I have been building one after another great domain names with this word “Roadmap.” Some of my Roadmap related domains are: Earthroadmap.com, Roadmaptosaving.com, Roadmaptosaving.com, RoadmaptoChina.com and much more.

- Use domain tools such as Domainbots.com to help you create domains with those words you are enthusiastic about. If you enter a word in Domain Bots search and hit enter, it will give you many variations with that word and also will tell you which are available. For example, I found many domains tied with “Green” and “Travel” from my search results on Domain Bot.

- Many domain names are dropping out of someone’s portfolio because the owner forgot to renew, gave up Internet Entrepreneurship, or simply can’t afford to hold them anymore. There are many sites that list those domain names that are about to expire or have recently expired. Go through these lists and who knows, you may be able to pick up your gem from these dropped-out domains. I found domains like 1timecash.com, 1tourtravel.com, and Realestateexpedition.com because someone else forgot or decided not to renew these domains.

There are many other ways to come up with great domain names. I can think of the above I mentioned right now off the top of my head. If you are into domains, you will come up with your own ways. If you can’t think of something right away, never give up and keep trying. It will all come to you slowly.
First Published: EntrepreneurJourney.com Apr 18, 2010

Portable Selfie LED Ring Light for Video or Smartphone

SOGOCOOL Selfie LED USB Light Review

Today, I will do a short review of a rechargeable selfie light that you can use for your lighting needs to take pictures or video. I have a video review of this product as well, which you can watch by clicking the picture on the top left. To clarify, like my other reviews, this is not a paid review and opinions are unbiased and honest. However, Canadian visitors can buy this by visiting my Amazon link mentioned here (SOGOCOOL LED Selfie Ring Light) and I will collect a small commission if you do so.

This LED ring light is very lightweight, portable, and made of 36 white LED lights. It’s very easy to carry and would fit in a small bag or carry-on luggage. My purpose for buying this was not for selfie pictures, but for video recording for my YouTube channel.

I have done several test clips of this LED ring light (see the video) and it works best when you need a light source in complete darkness. However, if you are outdoors and need a light source for your video or pictures or even when you are in indoors and need to brighten up your face, it does not seem to make any significant difference.

However, considering the low price of the SOGOCOOL Led Ring Light, you can’t go wrong buying it. When you need a light source for video or pictures in complete or semi-darkness, it really works and your face will be clearly visible when it otherwise wouldn’t. If you watch my video review, you will see how it’s performing in the dark and it’s easy to conclude that it works.

It can easily fit on top of any smartphone, laptop edge, or camera’s LCD flip screen and will provide the light when you need it. However, don’t expect it to provide heavy bright light like on a movie shooting because that’s not what it is.